Thailand’s energy security faced renewed uncertainty this week after a ceasefire between the United States and Iran broke down, triggering a fresh round of strikes that pushed global oil prices sharply higher and further strained the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway Thailand relies on for more than half its crude oil imports.
The collapse began Tuesday when Iran struck three commercial vessels sailing near the coast of Oman, according to the US military’s Central Command. The ships, a Marshall Islands flagged tanker, a Saudi Arabia flagged vessel and a Liberian flagged carrier, had been using a route close to Oman’s shore rather than the path Iran has designated as safe. One of the vessels, a liquefied natural gas tanker, caught fire after the attack, though no injuries were reported among any of the crews.
Hours later, in the early hours of Wednesday local time, the US launched retaliatory strikes on more than 80 targets inside Iran. Central Command said the strikes hit Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities and more than 60 small boats operated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which have been used to harass shipping in the strait.
The US also reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales, revoking a waiver that had let Tehran sell crude openly on international markets under the memorandum of understanding signed June 17. The new sanctions took effect July 7 for new oil sales, though a grace period applies to cargoes already shipped.
Speaking to reporters at a NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, President Donald Trump said he considered the ceasefire agreement finished, though he suggested his negotiating team might continue talking. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded with strikes it said hit 85 US linked military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, including bases housing the US Fifth Fleet and US Army forces, setting off missile sirens in both countries. Iran’s foreign ministry called the US strikes a violation of the ceasefire terms and said its forces would continue defending Iranian territory.
According to several news sources, Wednesday’s strikes were the third time the United States has attacked Iran since the ceasefire process began in June. The exchange comes during the multi day funeral for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening strikes of the war on February 28. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, jumped as much as 6 percent to around 78 dollars a barrel following the new strikes, reversing a months long decline in prices.
For Thailand, the renewed conflict revives a threat the country already confronted once this year. In March, a Thai flagged bulk carrier was struck by an Iranian projectile in the strait, forcing its crew to evacuate. Thailand’s Foreign Ministry negotiated directly with Iran’s embassy in Bangkok, and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced a separate safe passage arrangement for Thai vessels. A Bangchak Corporation oil tanker that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for nearly two weeks was allowed to transit soon after.
Thailand imports about 58 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, according to research from Krungsri Bank, which estimates the conflict could cut Thailand’s economic growth by 0.2 to 0.9 percentage points from baseline this year, depending on how long the fighting lasts and how high oil prices climb. Retail diesel stood at 41.50 baht per liter as of early June, well below the historic high of 50.54 baht reached in April at the height of the earlier fighting, though renewed volatility puts that relief at risk.
The Strait of Hormuz carried close to a fifth of the world’s traded oil and natural gas before the war began, and shipping through it remains well below those prewar levels even with Thailand’s separate safe passage arrangement in place.
Whether the broader ceasefire can be salvaged remains unclear. Analysts who spoke to international news outlets said both Washington and Tehran likely want to avoid a full return to war, but talks aimed at a final settlement, including the future of Iran’s nuclear program and full reopening of the strait, were due to resume only after Khamenei’s funeral concludes.
